The present crisis on the financial markets will not lead to a global economic crisis. Although the USA is likely to slip into recession temporarily, the second half of the year could surprise on the positive side. The impact on Germany is unlikely to be too severe, with the economy set to grow by 1.8 % in 2008. Rising prices and more or less flat wages are weighing on consumers. However, this year’s wage round offers more room for maneuver than in recent years. Ultimately, this should also benefit private consumption. / Only available in German.