At present the financial markets seem to be expecting a further deterioration in the US economy. But settling-up time is not until the end of 2008. By then the financial market picture could have shifted dramatically, prompted for instance by an unexpected comeback in the US. Moreover, the temporary slowdown in the USA will have only a modest impact on the world economy. International equity markets look set to bounce back strongly in the second half of 2008. On the bond markets the fear premium sparked by the financial market crisis is likely to disappear gradually or at least shrink markedly. We expect yields to pick up in both the USA and the euro area. / Only available in German.