Interest rate cuts or an expansive fiscal policy will not suffice to trigger a turnaround – not least the Japanese experience demonstrated that. New confidence will come from the reduction of risks in the financial sector and an enhanced capitalization of banks. Good progress has been made on this front in recent weeks, but consolidation is also needed in the corporate and private household sectors. Once initial successes become evident in the form of a return to improved capital ratios, tension will ease. And should we then also see falling energy and commodity prices massively ease pressure on the cost side, the outlook is by no means as bleak as the current crisis mood would suggest. / Only available in German.