It would be misguided to paint longer-term crisis scenarios out of the current financial market turmoil. The economic backdrop does not point to a global recession. After years of euphoria what we are seeing is a hefty but necessary consolidation of the financial markets. This in turn unleashes counterforces, for instance lower interest rates. In America the massive boost from monetary and fiscal policy will presumably spur domestic demand in the course of the year, as long as the oil price does not take off again. / Only available in German.