Uncertainty on the financial markets is on the wane, the nadir of the financial crisis will be reached in the next few months. Despite the current turmoil a credit crunch is not on the cards. In the USA the government’s rescue package is casting a pall, but the US economy is tougher than one thinks and should record growth of 1.9 % in 2009. The world economy should see growth of 2.7 % next year: soaring commodity prices have eased, central banks will keep interest rates low, corporate profits are healthy. / Only available in German.