Following the abrupt slide in October, things have let up a bit, helped by the central banks and the government rescue packages. The banks now need to reduce risks swiftly and trim their balance sheets. Despite the global interest rate cuts we will see a sharp but short recession, but we are not drifting into a long, drawn-out slump. The decline in commodity prices and very low interest rates are grounds for optimism. The US economy will emerge from its trough in the 2nd quarter 2009. / Only available in German.