The worsening of economic indicators is more pronounced thanexpected. The US economy is set to shrink in the winter half-year.An additional stimulus package is now being considered to stabilizeeconomic activity.

The escalation of the financial crisis leaves no room for a positive economic outlook. At best, the US economy will stagnate until the beginning of 2009. Economic policy is pulling out all stops to curb the risks to the credit supply.

US economic growth of 3.3 % in the second quarter was much stronger than initially reported, thanks to buoyant export momentum. Down the road we can initially expect a significantly slower pace due to the after-effects of the rise in energy prices.

Thanks to the stimulus package, the US economy is likely to have grown modestly in the second quarter as well. The trend in energy prices continues to cast a major question mark over the economic outlook. An acceleration in growth in the second half of the year no longer looks likely.

Thanks to the stimulus package, the US economy has grown by 1.9 % in the second quarter. We can expect a return to more moderate economic momentum initially, due, among other things, to the after effects of the rise in energy prices so far.

The US economy is staying afloat. Indicators for business investment were surprisingly positive. However, the energy price trend casts a major question mark over further economic development.

Real GDP rose by a mere whisker at the beginning of the year. Although the current quarter also seems to have got off to a badstart, massive support is now coming from fiscal policy.

The US economy is expected to remain in poor shape for the time being. However, the adjustment processes in residential construction and external trade are making progress. Inconjunction with the stimulus package, this brightens prospects for the second half of the year.

The outlook for the first half of 2008 has clouded over further. Although the stimulus package should help the economy find its footing again in the second half of the year, average growth for 2008 is likely to come in at only 1.5 %.

Economic downside risks remain high for the time being. The stimulus package, however, is intended to help the economy get clearly back on the growth track in the second half of the year. The US Federal Reserve is likely to trim the key interest rate down to 2.5%.

The economic downside risks remain high. Softer labor market data has fueled the debate about a stimulus package. The Fed is likely to further reduce the key interest rate at the end of this month.

The US economy is walking a tightrope this winter half-year. After exceptionally strong growth in the third quarter, economic output could stagnate in the closing quarter of the year. The Fed’s ratecutting phase is not over yet.

After the surprisingly positive development at the middle of the year, the economy is expected to lose considerable momentum in the final quarter – hit by the correction on the housing market, the surge in energy prices and more restrictive lending conditions. The Fed’s rate-cutting phase is not yet over.

The turbulence on the financial markets has dealt a further substantial blow to the housing market. We expect intensive adjustments to continue over the coming quarters. The Fed is likely to lower its key rate further before the end of this year.

The residential real estate market correction is set to last longer than expected, and is also likely to place more of a damper on private consumption than had previously been expected. We now expect average annual growth of 2.2 % in 2008 (previously: 2.7 %). The Fed is likely to cut key rates by a total of 75 basis points by year-end.

Due to the downward revision of the GDP figures for 2006, average annual growth in 2007 is no longer expected to exceed 2 %. We still expect the strong second quarter to be followed by weaker economic momentum in the second half of the year.

After the very weak start to the year, the pace of growth looks to have rebounded sharply in the second quarter. However, the likelihood of a renewed deterioration in the residential construction sector should result in more subdued momentum in the second half of the year.

After a very weak start to the year, growth momentum looks set to pick up considerably in the current quarter. However, with the adjustment process in the residential construction sector not yet over, the scale of the current rebound cannot simply be extrapolated into the future.

Economic growth slowed noticeably at the beginning of the year. Although private consumption is likely to lose momentum, overall economic activity could see a slightly stronger trend this quarter.

Economic data indicate that the pace of growth has slowed further. In addition to the housing market, equipment investment looks to have again been an economic soft spot in the first quarter of this year.