Overall populations in CEE countries and especially the working-age population will decline significantly by 2050. Over the coming decades those in work will have to support a sharply rising proportion of retirees. This will be mitigated somewhat by the fact that in CEE countries the old, pay-as-you-go financed pension schemes have been replaced by more modern multi-pillar pension schemes with substantial funded elements. Apart from pension spending, ageing populations also push up costs for health and long-term care, too. On the other hand, the CEE countries have a high growth potential and for the next 25 years this will probably more than offset the adverse effects due to demographic change. But from 2030 a significant drop in the labor pool will have a negative impact on growth potential.

Rising life expectancy and low birth rates have characterized demographic trends in Germany for over 30 years. The upshot: an increase in the average age and a drop in the population. What are the implications of a 10 % drop in the population for the residential property market?

In recent years demographic trends in Germany have increasingly been grabbing the headlines. This Working Paper looks at future population trends in Germany and the resulting consequences. We also take a look across the borders.