The positive Constitutional Court ruling for the government and the AKP removes considerable uncertainty from the country. The economy will benefit from this. Other challenges remain, e.g. the international capital markets have hit choppy waters in the wake of the subprime crisis in the US. How will Turkey accomplish the balancing act between the tricky domestic political situation and the confidence of international investors upon which it relies given its substantial foreign capital requirements?

There are growing signs that the economy in Africa is taking off. This is all the more encouraging given the many disappointments in the continent‘s recent economic past. Natural catastrophes, famine, civil wars, corruption and excessive debt threw sub-SaharanAfrica behind other developing regions and prompted international companies to avoid the continent when developing their business strategies. Temporary glimmers of hope, e.g. the adoption by a number of countries of a market economy following the collapse of the Soviet Union, were generally followed by disappointment, with deteriorating external conditions - such as a collapse in commodity prices - frequently standing in the way of an upswing. Is the latest germ of economic recovery likely to experience the same fate? Or do key factors suggest that the sub-Saharan African economy will latch on to the momentum of Asia and Latin America and that emerging markets will develop from the African developing nations? In the course of this study we will weigh up the negative and the positive factors and attempt to derive from them the long-term trends of economic growth.

India has caught up with Far Eastern growth momentum. For several years now the economy has been recording dynamic and strong growth. There are many factors to suggest that India will remain on a clearly upward growth path in the longer term. The sub-continent enjoys the second highest growth potential in the world, after China. India is on its way to becoming a significant economic power.

In recent weeks Brazil has also been affected by the jitters on international financial markets: yield premiums on Brazilian foreign bonds crept up, the Real slipped by a good 10 % against the US dollar and the Brazilian stock market tumbled.

Almost three-quarters of global currency reserves are held by central banks in emerging markets and developing countries. In a Working Paper ("Emerging market central banks' investment strategies: Tailwind for the euro?") economists at Dresdner Bank have examined whether these central banks have become a determining factor on the international foreign exchange markets and are now driving up the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar.

South Africa’s star is in the ascendant. Its economy is flourishing, its currency has recorded a five-year high, investor confidence is growing and the country is about to see the removal of foreign exchange controls, a relic of the apartheid era.

Despite all the progress made in the past two years Turkey remains vulnerable to shocks. Destabilizing factors include weak demand management, the low savings rate, the current account deficit and, despite some recent inroads, the still yawning budget deficit.

In the debate about Turkey’s entry into the EU foreign policy considerations are usually in the foreground, but the economic consequences for the EU are also significant. Assuming Turkey is granted similar accession terms as the eastern European countries, the cost of Turkish accession would exceed those of the current enlargement round.

Brazil is heading for a brighter economic future. The country has overcome the modest recession of 2003 and is likely to notch up growth of 3.5 % this year. On the back of buoyant exports, Brazil’s current account and foreign currency situation have improved substantially.

The outstanding importance of the oil and gas sector was the main factor behind buoyant Russian growth in recent years. But overall growth is now progressively moving onto a broader footing. For many years to come, Russia will be one of the strongest growing countries in Europe.

For several years Iran has been one of the fastest growing economies in the Middle East. Gushing oil and gas revenues will continue to stimulate imports and investment activity, helping to boost the urgently needed modernization of the capital stock. For this year and the next four years we are forecasting average growth of 5 %. This means Iran is set to remain an attractive trading partner for German companies.