The signs of strong economic bounceback are shaping up more distinctly as the global economy resurfaces from the state of shock into which it descended as from last autumn. But that is no reason to sit back complacently. Even if production does pick up sharply in the second half-year and capacity underutilization is reduced – which is the scenario we expect – the negative repercussions of the financial and economic crisis on future growth will not have been banished.