Based on a series of model calculations, the economists of Allianz Dresdner Economic Research have forecast the development of the nursing care sector until 2050 and – taking for the first time the nursing care reform 2008 into consideration – have estimated the contribution rate development of the social nursing insurance scheme and its sustainability gap and have made a detailed calculation of the reform proposals. The only way that funding of the nursing insurance scheme can be guaranteed is if a transition is made to a funded system. We have developed such a reform model and quantified the change-over costs, and have also illustrated the possibilities of dividing up the costs.

The federal government has declared the funding of the German health sector as one its main priorities in 2006. But the models put forward by the two governing parties could hardly be more different. While the SPD has for some time favored a citizen’s insurance based on the principle of solidarity (“solidarische Bürgerversicherung”), CDU and CSU have argued whether earnings-related contributions or a health premium offer the best solution.

Capital market forecasts are standard practice for any major financial corporation. Medium-term trends are more heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables than are short-term fluctuations. It therefore makes sense to deploy an econometric model to analyze capital market trends.

In Germany hospitals gobble up by far the largest share (35 %) of statutory health insurance spending. With the capital intensity of hospital services set to rise going forward, it is essential to provide a statutory framework offering hospitals an incentive to operate more efficiently.

Capital market forecasts are standard practice for any major financial corporation. Medium-term trends are more heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables than are short-term fluctuations. It therefore makes sense to deploy an econometric model to analyze capital market trends.

In this report we take a look at the main health market segments in Germany and attempt to map out their performance up to 2020.